Copper
New area plays in the Ring of Fire
The Pacific Ring of Fire, also known as the Circum-Pacific region, is believed to hold more than half of the world’s copper endowment, according to Minex Consulting. This tectonic belt reaches from South America through Argentina, Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, to Central America, traversing Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and El Salvador, and North America (Mexico), and the Caribbean Islands. So far, 302 copper deposits have been found in this region, according to Minex.
At the heart of it is the Andean Copper Belt, home to the largest known copper deposits in the world, hosting Escondida mine in the Atacama Desert in Chile or Las Bambas in the Apurimac region of Peru. But this same belt arcs into less-explored, forest-covered Ecuador, Panama and Colombia. “On this major subduction zone that is the Andean belt, the near-surface copper deposits in dry areas have been the easiest and first to discover,” said Ian Harris, the president and CEO of Giant Copper Resources (formerly Libero Copper), an explorer in Colombia, explaining that exploration has been gradually expanding from Chile to Peru, and from Peru to Ecuador and Panama, as demand for copper has risen.
With copper demand now projected to increase by 70% and reach 50 million t/y according to BHP, the humid region is also starting to attract more exploration. “Most of the historical growth in copper output has come from brownfield projects. However, we have now crossed a point when it is cheaper to build greenfield projects than to expand brownfield ones. The problem is that the number of new copper discoveries has been drastically falling and the discoveries tend to be much deeper underground. Between 1990 and 2023, there have been 239 copper discoveries. However, only four of these discoveries were made in the last five years,” said Harris, quoting a recent report by BHP.
The Latam North and Caribbean region could provide a fix for this shortage of discoveries. Juniors like C3 Metals are building their copper exploration portfolios in countries as different as Peru and Jamaica: one as the third largest copper producer in the world, while the other a completely nascent copper player: “Large copper-gold deposits are straddling the same geological fault system ripping through the Caribbean, in Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, with some of these jurisdictions friendlier than others. We were privileged to cherry-pick what we felt was the most prospective ground in Jamaica,” said Dan Symons, CEO, C3 Metals.
Chief among the new hotspots for copper exploration is Ecuador, already a copper producer since the Mirador open-pit mine entered production in 2019. Mirador, operated by the Chinese company Ecuacorriente, is the only large-scale copper mine in the country. The discovery of Mirador by Corriente Resources turned Ecuador’s southeastern province of Zamora Chinchipe, and the Jurassic arc of the belt, into an area play for other companies to stake land around it, looking for fresh porphyry copper-gold systems.
Beyond the Fruta del Norte epithermal gold-silver deposit mined today by Lundin Gold, multiple top-tier deposits have been discovered in this prime region. One is Warintza, holding 4 billion t of near-surface copper resources just 40 km away from the Mirador copper mine and 80 km away from Fruta del Norte. Besides Warintza, Solaris Resources owns mineral rights over 268 km² of additional properties, with blue sky potential for copper-porphyry targets. The company is currently preparing a PFS. “Warintza is one of the largest projects in Ecuador today and it has the potential to become the largest mine in the country, so everyone has their eyes on its development,” said Matthew Rowlinson, president & CEO of Solaris Resources.
Further north is SolGold’s Cascabel copper project, which, according to its 2024 PFS, contains 18.2 million tons CuEq and 31.3 Moz Au. In the center of Ecuador, Salazar Resources discovered the El Domo deposit back in 2008. El Domo is currently being developed as a JV with Silvercorp Metals (which owns 75%) and is gearing up to enter production by the end of 2026. El Domo is a VMS deposit, of higher grades but smaller size, with defined reserves of 6.5 million t(5% CuEq). “Although its metallurgy is more complex than that of a porphyry or an epithermal gold deposit, El Domo contains a valuable mix of metals: 50% copper, along with gold, lead, zinc and silver. El Domo is a highly profitable deposit, generating an estimated free cash flow of around US$500 million,” said Fredy E. Salazar, the CEO and president of Salazar Resources.
Beyond El Domo, Salazar has five projects at exploration phase, including Macara Mina, which sits on the border with Peru, and shares the same geological basin as Tambo Grande, the largest VMS deposit discovered on the planet. Its main focus, however, is Santiago, a copper-gold porphyry. Though Ecuador is proving to offer a range of mineralization styles, large-scale, long-life porphyries hold the most appeal, since 80% of the world’s copper comes from this type of rock. According to Salazar, Santiago has the potential to become a new Warintza, exhibiting the characteristics of an expansive porphyry system.
“There have been many short-term economic and geopolitical factors playing out recently, while in the long run, copper supply is set to hit a brick wall. Copper prices will remain subject to the push and pull forces of both these dynamics.”
Ian Harris, President & CEO, Copper Giant Resources (formerly Libero Copper)
Ecuador’s success has reinforced confidence in the continuation of the volcanic belt in less-explored parts of the region. “The Jurassic belt that hosts deposits like EcuaCorriente’s Mirador or Solaris’ Warintza in Ecuador continues into Colombia at our Mocoa project,” said Ian Harris, president and CEO of Giant Copper Resources (formerly Libero Copper).
The Mocoa copper project in Putumayo, Colombia, was discovered in the 1970s and acquired by Libero Copper in 2018. After securing sponsorship from Frank Giustra of Fiore Group (now owning 13.12%), Libero Copper, now called Copper Giant Resources, launched a 14,000-meter drill program in November 2024 and hopes to bring the 600 million t reserve at 0.33% Cu grade to over 1 billion t.
In Colombia, there is currently only one operating copper mine; the El Roble mine of Atico Mining. But the largest mine-to-be is the Alacran copper project, a mix of porphyry copper-gold, carbonate replacement mineralization, and gold veins. According to the December 2023 PFS, Alacran would produce 797 million lbs Cu and 550,000 oz Au over a 14-year LOM. The project has been developed by Cordoba Minerals, an Ivanhoe Electric subsidiary, which owned 50% of the project; JCHX Mining Management has recently bought the full interest in the project.
Copper developments—especially large-scale porphyry projects—demand substantial investment and typically require the involvement of a major partner. It is therefore an encouraging sign to see that most developers in this region are attracting such support. Titan Minerals, for instance, has signed a JV with Hancock Prospecting’s subsidiary company Hanrine, which can earn 80% of Linderos by spending up to US$120 million through drilling, feasibility studies, and by reaching a decision to mine. “Attracting a pedigree partner like Hancock is a feather in our cap and a great endorsement of the technical capability of our team and the merits of the Linderos project, which we believe could host a tier 1 copper porphyry,” commented Melanie Leighton, the CEO of Titan Minerals.
C3 Metals also signed an earn-in agreement on 13,020 hectares of its ground with Freeport McMoran for US$75 million. On its side, SolGold announced a US$750 million financing package for the construction of Cascabel from Franco Nevada and Osisko Gold Royalties, as well as the backing of shareholders like Jiangxi Copper (12%), BHP (10%), and Newmont (10%). Meanwhile, Solaris Resources has reached PFS stage without being tied to a major, as its president and CEO, Matthew Rowlinson, highlighted: “A key differentiator for Solaris is that we have no attachments to a major that holds equity in our stock, which is unique in the world of development projects.”
“Large copper-gold deposits are straddling the same geological fault system ripping through the Caribbean, in Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, with some of these jurisdictions friendlier than others. We were privileged to cherry-pick what we felt was the most prospective ground in Jamaica.”
Dan Symons, CEO, C3 Metals
The dormant spots
Copper discoveries in Ecuador have fired up the region, much like an erupting volcano. By that analogy, Ecuador is a very active region, having joined the ranks of copper-producing nations, with Colombia slowly heating up, while Jamaica is yet to prove its magmatism. But while exploration has been expanded on the Andean belt, and the ring of copper production has also been expanding since Mirador started operations, the two main suspects for copper production in the Latam North region are eerily dormant.
One is Mexico, the world’s 10th largest copper producer and the home of 45 copper mines, according to GlobalData. Mexico’s main copper producer is Grupo Mexico, the operator of the open-pit Buenavista del Cobre mine and La Caridad mine in Sonora, the two biggest operations in the country. In the third and fourth places are the Tayahua underground mine in Zacatecas, owned by Minera Fisco, and the Cozamin mine of Capstone Copper, also in Zacatecas. Invecture Group owns the fifth largest mine; the Piedras Verdes surface mine in Sonora. Both Cozamin and Piedras Verdes are approaching their end of life. Despite its longer history in copper production compared to neighbors like Ecuador, Mexico has seen decreased enthusiasm in its copper prospects due primarily to the former government’s hard-line on open-pit mining.
“The Andean Copper Belt spanning Chile, Peru and Colombia is well explored and mature in a mining sense, with Ecuador representing a screaming gap in terms of geological knowledge and investment.”
Melanie Leighton, CEO, Titan Minerals
One of the few copper development stories in Mexico is the 8.5 billion lb CuEq Santo Tomas project in Sinaloa, developed by the Toronto-listed Oroco Resource. The company secured the title in 2020 and has since released an initial resource, as well as two PEAs, one in 2023 and an updated one in 2024. Santo Tomas would require a CapEx of US$1.1 billion at a base metal price of US$4/lb. The project offers straightforward mineralogy, allowing strong recoveries and a low strip ratio (1.38:1 over LOM), but the political uncertainties have been less encouraging. “In H2 2024 we slowed our progress because we felt that the risk of investing in the prevailing election year headwind environment justified reducing activity while we stabilized federal and state political support for the project, but the recent clear expressions of that support are resulting in a ramp-up of our environmental work,” said Ian Graham, president of Oroco Resource.
The other dormant is Panama. First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panama is one of the largest copper mines in the world, holding 3 billion t of proven and probable reserves and producing over 300,000 t/y before it was suspended. The closure of the mine had a chilling effect not just on copper exploration in the country, but across the rest of the less-tested region. While geological successes in one part of the belt have created new play areas, major suspensions such as this have also created no-play areas.
Things may change in Panama. First Quantum remains positive and patient, as declared in a recent statement, with a potential JV between FQM and the government of Panama as one of the options considered to permit a restart. The Canadian miner has also dropped the arbitration case against Panama, but authorities remain undecided on the way forward. Thankfully, the mining industry, especially the copper sector, is used to taking a long-term view.
Copper reached a new record high in March this year, at US$5.24/lb. Though copper’s long-term projections could not be more bullish considering the undeniable supply deficit the world is heading toward, short-term economic predictions should normally weigh prices down. However, copper has so far defied the economic pessimism, maintaining its gains. The price remains, as Harris of Giant Copper Resources put it, in a “tug of war" between short-term global issues and long-term fundamentals.
Article header image courtesy of Salazar Resources