Changing Tides
From offshoring to reshoring the mineral supply chain
Donald J. Trump assumed office on January 20th, 2025, as the 47th president of the United States. Speculation abounds about the policies he will implement or undo, but one outcome seems certain: the mining industry stands to benefit. While the president has made few direct statements on the sector, his 2020 pledge to “put our miners back to work” still resonates.
Trump’s election victory has already garnered enthusiastic support from the mining industry: “Together with the next Trump administration and Congress, we can increase America’s competitive standing on the global stage, ensuring that made in America also means mined in America,” Rich Nolan, president and CEO of the National Mining Association issued in a statement following the election.
It remains to be seen how Trump will navigate the backdrop he inherited. In 2023, the United States achieved a record high for mineral imports, marking an all-time low for supply chain stability. According to the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) 2023 Minerals Commodity Summaries report, the US was more than 50% reliant on 51 minerals, and 100% net import reliant for 15 of those 51 minerals, 12 of which are deemed “critical”. In 2024, not much changed. The US is more than 50% reliant on 49 minerals, and 100% reliant on the same 15.
This reliance will likely be reduced under Trump if his previous presidency is any indication. In 2017, President Donald Trump issued Executive order 13817, to facilitate better management of critical minerals to strengthen energy security. Under the order, “it shall be the policy of the Federal Government to reduce the Nation's vulnerability to disruptions in the supply of critical minerals” by “streamlining leasing and permitting processes to expedite exploration, production, processing, reprocessing, recycling, and domestic refining of critical minerals.”
The Biden-Harris administration’s goals of making 50% of vehicle sales electric by 2030 and advancing toward net zero by 2050 lack the support of domestically produced raw materials. The US remains heavily dependent on imports for the entire battery supply chain and the materials essential for renewable energy and storage technologies. While the Democrats’ approach positioned “friend-shoring” and “near-shoring” at the center of the agenda, Trump claims he will prioritize “reshoring” domestic minerals production.
While federal policy plays a significant role, the local dynamics in key mining states illustrate the country’s abilities to fulfill executive orders.
“The US lags 20 years behind China in developing and advancing its minerals strategy. We believe ‘Made in America’ should be ‘Mined in America’, and to make that a reality we must reshore our minerals supply chains, even if that cannot happen overnight.”
Rich Nolan, President and CEO, National Mining Association
Nevada: a lithium island
Capital markets have been hesitant to invest in lithium, given the commodity’s poor performance over the past 12 months. Under Biden, the government became especially involved in the space. While capital markets require quick returns, the Biden administration looked longer term, seeing lithium through the lens of energy transition demand. Nevada received four federal investments as the US worked to increase market share in the battery space. Under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the DOE awarded a sum of US$4.62 billion to 35 projects in 2022 and 2023. Three are in Nevada.
Nevada, historically known as the ‘Silver State’ since the 1859 discovery of the Comstock Lode, evolved into a leading gold producer. “If considered a country, Nevada would rank as the sixth-largest gold producer globally. The state is responsible for approximately 73% of the gold mined in the US,” said Amanda Hilton, president of the Nevada Mining Association.
However, Nevada is well on its way to becoming the White Gold State, hosting the only active lithium mine in the US, with two additional mines, Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass and Ioneer’s Rhyolite Ridge, both expecting production by, or in, 2027.
This comes with reason, as Nevada houses the country’s largest lithium deposits. Processing capabilities, however, are lagging. “Nevada is one of the few places on the planet with large enough critical element deposits to support multigenerational activity in mining, extraction, and advanced manufacturing. However, there is a large gap in processing abilities. Nevada is currently a net exporter of raw critical element ore to China,” explained Frederick Steinmann, director, University Center for Economic Development (UCED), at the University of Nevada, Reno (UNR).
In 2023, the UNR received US$1 million in financing from the NSF’s Regional Innovation Engines program to begin to address the challenge. “We recognize the processing and refining gaps and are attempting to bring in new technologies and improve old ones. We are working with consultancies and venture capital firms to provide information, knowledge, sophistication, and support to move towards commercialization,” highlighted Erica Hall, senior project manager at UNR.
The UNR, led by UCED, was named as one of 31 regional technology and innovation hubs by the US Economic Development Administration through the CHIPS and Science Act in 2023. The initiative aims to strengthen Nevada's expertise across the entire lifecycle of lithium and other EV materials, from extraction and processing to advanced manufacturing and recycling.
Trump vowed to eliminate incentives to promote EV production and adoption, which could curtail the entire multibillion dollar EV industry, which has Nevada at its heart. EV demand could fall 20% by 2030 if Trump follows through on campaign promises, according to Benchmark Intelligence.
“Nevada’s leadership and industry are beginning to invest in lithium supply chain infrastructure. Nevada still needs to bridge the gap between raw lithium and battery-ready material.”
Denis Phares, CEO, Dragonfly Energy
Arizona: A US treasure chest
Under the red sands of Arizona lies a 21st century treasure chest. However, lifting the lid reveals something even more industrially valuable than gold. Copper, one of the leading metals for the energy transition, may not shine a bright as gold, but is equally the United States' plunder. Lately, the metal has been treated as fool’s gold. Import reliance for copper grew 5% from 2023 to 2024. This reliance will only increase as American demand for copper will far outstrip supply in the coming years. The US lacks both raw and refined supply, housing only two functional smelters. Despite its critical role in the green energy transition and the country being 46% import reliant on the metal, copper is not defined as a critical mineral by the US government. The USGS even denied a bipartisan request to add copper to the list.
Arizona has been the leading copper-producing state in the US for over a century. Mining contributes approximately US$6.7 billion annually to the state’s economy and supports around 38,000 jobs directly and indirectly. Several companies—including Resolution Copper, Florence Copper, Gunnison Copper, Arizona Sonoran—will likely bring mines online in the coming months to years to reduce foreign reliance on the metal amid rising demand. Demand is steep, increasing to 56 million t/y by 2050, a sizable increase over today’s 21-million-t market.
Mines like Resolution Copper that have been stalled in litigation for decades may advance towards production under Trump rule. Rio Tinto executive Bold Baatar called on the administration to focus on speeding up permitting in the US. No matter the stance, one thing remains clear: “Copper is a critical mineral for decarbonization and securing the US supply chain. Arizona produces 74% of the nation's copper supply. The energy transition, innovation, our quality of life, and our ability to mine are all contingent on this mineral,” said Steve Trussell, executive director of the Arizona Mining Association.
Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico: Riding the nuclear currents
The up-and-coming star in the US is Utah, having placed first in the Fraser Institute’s Investment Attractiveness Index, after finishing 17th in 2022. Utah has long supported the growth of the nation, said Nathan Foster, managing director Kennecott at Rio Tinto: “About 25% of the metal supplied to the Allies during World War II came from Utah, underscoring Kennecott's role in North America's growth.”
80 years after the end of WWII, Utah continues to play a pivotal role in the nation’s development. The state houses one of the two operational copper smelters and Kennecott produces 15-20% of the domestic refined copper supply.
Utah is also the third-largest uranium-producing state in the US. The state’s first uranium boom arrived in 1948 when the US Atomic Energy Commission provided benefits to domestically mined uranium for nuclear weapons. A second uranium boom followed in the early 1970s with the development of the nuclear power industry. With nuclear energy once again in the spotlight, the boom is returning to Utah, bringing mines online, like IsoEnergy’s Tony M mine.
The Trump energy plan aims to boost to nuclear energy, which currently makes up only 18.6% of US electricity production, according to the US Energy Information Administration. “Trump will support nuclear energy production by modernizing the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, working to keep existing power plants open and investing in innovative small modular reactors,” said David Bernhardt, former Interior Secretary, on a press call.
These plans will bode well for New Mexico and Wyoming, as the top producers of uranium. They produced 347 and 250 million pounds respectively during 2024.
Idaho: Anchored in opportunity
The mountains and valleys of Idaho cannot be overlooked when it comes to supplying the nation. “The northern part of the state features the Idaho Silver Valley, which has been producing silver for over 100 years. Central and southern Idaho has considerable gold deposits, along with molybdenum and copper. On the eastern side, we have the Idaho Cobalt Belt, which also includes rare earth elements,” detailed Benjamin Davenport, executive director at the Idaho Mining Association.
Idaho's mining history dates to the 1860s, providing the foundation for the state’s current mining-friendly status, said Jon Cherry, president and CEO of Perpetua Resources: “Idaho has a long history of mining, which is deeply embedded in the state’s culture. The presence of significant mineral resources and a multi-generational mining workforce makes Idaho a unique and advantageous location for mining activities.”
Under the Trump administration, Perpetua will likely come into the spotlight as its Stibnite gold project contains approximately 90,000 t of antimony. The US is 100% import reliant for antimony, but American manufacturers require more than 50 million lb/y for fireproofing compounds, batteries, ammunition, electronics, specialty glass, and other products, according to MetalTech. Antimony production is dominated by China, Tajikistan and Russia. China accounted for 48% global antimony production in 2023, according to the USGS, but restricted exports in September 2024.
The US government will provide a US$1.86 billion loan to bring Stibnite into production by 2029.
“When we talk about next-generation mining, we must abandon outdated paradigms and preconceived notions.”
Travis McLing, Directorate Fellow and Critical Minerals Research Co-lead, Idaho National Laboratory
Colorado and Alaska: Tides of legacy
The snowcapped peaks of Colorado and Alaska are characterized by an enduring legacy of manifest destiny. The Pikes Peak Gold Rush in Colorado and discoveries like Fortymile River in Alaska brought settlers West. Though golden streams of opportunity once flowed more readily through their mountain valleys, these states still host much mining activity. Alaska is home to Kinross’s Fort Knox gold mine and Hecla’s Greens Creek mine. Colorado houses Freeport-McMoRan’s Climax molybdenum mine and Newmont’s Cripple Creek & Victor gold mine. Mining contributes US$7 billion annually to Colorado's economy and employs 58,000 people directly or indirectly.
Alaska ranked 11th on the Fraser Institute Attractiveness Index. The state contains significant antimony reserves, like Nova Minerals’ Estelle gold project, which will likely receive attention under the current administration.
Colorado ranked lower in the Fraser ratings but has a unique proposition. “The state's diverse mineral endowment, combined with our broad range of mineral reliant industries including clean energy development, aerospace and national security applications, provides a broad range of investment opportunities for commodities needed in these sectors, and makes Colorado a unique and attractive place for mining investment,” said Adam Eckman, president and CEO of the Colorado Mining Association.
Founded in 1876, Colorado has the oldest mining trade association in the US. As the legacy continues, so will miners across the entire Rocky Mountain Range.
Charting a new course
In his memoir One Man’s West, author David Lavender details a mining operation in the mountains of Southwest Colorado: “Only the coarser particles of free gold could be extracted from the ore by the lease company’s mill. The finest stuff and the various gold, silver, lead and zinc compounds were sent through a complicated ‘floatation’ process… The richly laden sand which remained was then sacked and sent to a smelter of final reduction.”
The description is of Camp Bird—a mine operated over a century ago—when US$20/ oz gold brought profits and horse-drawn wagons transported extracted riches. Today, gold is over 100 times more valuable and trucks without drivers transport mined material. Lavender’s description is perennial, but it should not be. “Mining has not changed over time; we still break, crush and heat rock to make metal, but now with bigger, more advanced equipment. The US mining industry must innovate, adopting new technologies and methodologies to stay competitive while meeting environmental and cost demands,” said Travis McLing, directorate fellow and critical minerals research Co-lead at the Idaho National Laboratory.
For the US, competing on a global scale will be difficult. “China holds the equivalent of pocket aces at the poker table, and they will play that hand when they choose,” warned John Swallow, president and CEO of Idaho Strategic Resources.
From what industry executives told GBR, the appeal of Trump is that he will play a seven deuce offsuit like he has pocket aces; those players are usually the most lethal.
Article header image by BrilliantPixels at Adobe Stock