Net Zero 2050 – A Note to Politicians
Sincerely, the Mining Industry
Humanity has been a fossil-fueled civilization for 125 years, when coal and oil surpassed wood as the leading energy source in the late 1800s. Net zero would mean a paradigm shift in the energy we have relied on since that time. As of 2022, fossil fuels accounted for 82% of the world’s primary energy supply. Hydro, nuclear, wind, solar and geothermal plants provided only 18% of world energy supply. The share of fossil fuels in global energy use decreased only 4% from 1997 to 2022, according to Vaclav Smil’s ‘Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050’ report.
Net zero means that in the 28-year span from 2022 to 2050, clean energies must not only displace fossil fuel’s current place in electricity generation, but also account for the forecasted 3.3% annual growth in electricity demand. Clean energy technology must also replace all other sources of emissions, including transportation. These demands put unprecedented pressure on the mining and metals industry. It is estimated that 384 mines must be built by 2035 to meet EV and energy storage battery demand alone, according to Benchmark Intelligence. “Electric vehicles, batteries and renewable energy systems all require metals like lithium, cobalt, nickel and magnets,” emphasized Robert Fox, materials separations and analysis department manager at the Idaho National Laboratory.
Achieving net zero would mean 3,500 GW of new renewable resources operating by 2050. Each megawatt of wind power demands 500 t of materials, including copper, neodymium and praseodymium, as highlighted by European Union research. Solar power, too, is straining the supply of precious metals, with silver demand projected to rise by 170% by 2030 due to solar panel production. “Demand from new photovoltaic installations globally could result in more demand for silver than total global annual supply,” said Mitchell Krebs, president and CEO of Coeur Mining.
Net zero means electrifying the fleet of consumer vehicles. Replacing the 1.35 billion gasoline and diesel cars on the road today—and accommodating an expanded fleet projected to reach 2.2 billion vehicles by 2050—will demand an additional 150 million t/y of copper. The Energy Transition Commission estimates that cumulative copper demand for net zero will total 600 million t/y. For perspective, global copper production in 2023 was just 22 million t/y, according to the USGS 2024 Mineral Commodity Summary. With copper grades averaging 0.6%, meeting this demand would generate 100 billion t/y of waste rock.
While lithium scarcity concerns fueled the 2021 price rally, the mineral remains crucial for EV production, emphasized Bernard Rowe, managing director of Ioneer: “The US is the second-largest car market in the world. Today the production of lithium in the country is between 5,000-7,000 t/y. By the early 2030s, the US alone will require around 1 million t/y of lithium carbonate equivalent.”
“To transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources we need vast quantities of metals. Mining technology must evolve to extract these metals sustainably, preserving ecosystems, air and water quality.”
Robert Fox, Materials Separations and Analysis Department Manager, Idaho National Laboratory
Recycling: A part of the minerals supply solution
At 29 years, the lead time to bring a mine into production in the US means a deposit discovered today misses contributing to the country’s 2050 net zero target by four years, immediately extinguishing hopes of a cleaner future. However, metals supply can come in different forms: “There is no scenario in which the world could come close to Paris agreement targets without recycling all the needed materials in the world’s supply chains,” said Corrado De Gasperis, executive chairman and CEO, Comstock Inc.
There is an estimated 280 billion t of inactive tailings deposits worldwide, estimated to contain trillions in estimated value of critical, precious and strategic metals. Reprocessing this material is a no-brainer according to Tawana Bain, CEO of American Clean Resources Group: “The reintroduction of minerals and metals that were once considered waste into the supply chain not only diversifies our sources of supply but also advances America's goal of self-reliance. This shift has the potential to transform the mining industry in the US, creating safer job opportunities and redefining the sector’s future.”
The firm is starting with the tailings in the 1,183 acres of their Tonopah property in Nevada.
The US Forest Service identified 38,991 abandoned mine sites on National Forest Lands. Many of such mines operated under environmental regulations inadmissible today. Recycling the material is a win-win, according to Dustin Wasley market leader mining at Haley & Aldrich: “Legacy mine sites, although inactive, still hold valuable mineral resources. Revitalizing these areas not only limits the impact of reintroducing critical minerals into the supply chain but also facilitates needed environmental restoration.”
In 2022, the Department of Energy awarded US$74 million under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to 10 projects focused on battery recycling and reuse. Two of the awarded companies, American Battery Technology Company (ABTC) and Redwood Materials, are recycling lithium-ion batteries in Nevada. ABTC’s parallel lithium extraction and battery recycling businesses exemplify the importance of recycling when moving away from fossil fuels: "Building partnerships is crucial for creating a closed-loop supply chain, which differs significantly from the traditional hydrocarbon economy, where resources are used once and then depleted. With elements like lithium, having strong partnerships allows us to maintain control over these materials indefinitely." said Ryan Melsert, CEO and CTO, ABTC.
Solar panels provide another type of recycling feedstock. “More than 100,000 t/y of waste solar panels are generated, mostly from California, Arizona and Nevada. By 2030, this is expected to rise to 1 million t/y, and, by 2050, 8-10 million t/y,” said Corrado De Gasperis.
In 2023, Comstock Metals, a subsidiary of Comstock Inc., established a commercial demonstration facility to recycle 100% of end-of-life solar panels, yielding glass, silica, aluminum copper and a high-silver-content metallurgical ore.
Without the uptake of recycling and reuse to meet 2050 targets, mining capital requirements would increase by a third, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The current recycling rate for copper is around 29%; increasing this to 100% by 2050 would reduce primary copper demand by 26%, according to the World Bank Group.
Even with significant improvements in recycling rates, secondary supply from recycling cannot fully meet the rapid growth in demand for critical minerals. “Most countries, including the US, Europe, China and Australia, are increasing their need for raw materials like copper. While recycling helps address this gap in supply, it is just one part of the solution. We need new mines to keep up with demand, but can we build these fast enough?” implored Nathan Foster, managing director Kennecott at Rio Tinto.
“It is in our best interest to figure out how to utilize our country’s own resources so that we do not put ourselves in a position where others can dictate what we have access to.”
Tawana Bain, CEO, American Clean Resources Group
Climate goals and permitting reform: A policy balancing act
Many praise the Biden Administration as the administration that took more climate action than any other in history. The three legislative measures comprising Biden’s Investing in America agenda include the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which will have the biggest impact on the domestic mining industry.
Under the BIL, the US will invest more than US$7 billion in the supply chain for batteries, which includes production, sourcing and recycling. This amount is part of the US$62 billion allocated to the US Department of Energy to fund and expand clean energy initiatives and technologies. The CHIPS and Science Act, while primarily aimed at semiconductor supply chain resilience, seeks to jumpstart R&D and commercialization of leading-edge technologies, including clean energy and the creation new regional high-tech hubs. A portion of the IRA’s US$370 billion in investments will accelerate private investment in clean energy solutions and strengthen critical mineral supply chains.
From a policy standpoint, the Biden administration made significant progress. However, many mining executives feel that critical issues remain unaddressed. According to Mark Compton, executive director American Exploration & Mining Association (AEMA): “The Biden administration recognized the need for mining to meet clean energy goals, but this has not yet translated into concrete actions to support domestic mining. While some projects, particularly in the lithium space, received federal support, widespread support remains lacking.”
The US permitting landscape has resulted in some of the longest lead times globally to bring a resource from discovery to production, second only to Zambia. The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) sets the timelines and deadlines for federal environmental decisions on projects, but it also contributes to significant delays. In May 2024, the White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) published its final Phase 2 rule, revising the agency’s regulations for implementing the NEPA and expanding environmental reviews for projects, including mining, which will require more detailed assessments of climate impacts, community effects and cumulative impacts while adding enforceable mitigation requirements. The new guidelines raise concerns within the mining industry. The National Mining Association (NMA) argues that the administration’s approach complicates the permitting process, disregarding Congressional intent to streamline it. This creates uncertainty for mining projects that are critical for the clean energy transition, potentially resulting in longer review times and increased costs. “[NEPA] reforms are essential to ensuring that decisions are made transparently and within a reasonable timeframe, which is currently one of the biggest obstacles to advancing new mining projects,” said Rich Nolan, president and CEO of the NMA.
Under the new administration, this will likely change, as President Trump supports reshoring domestic production in the quickest manner possible.
No China, no transition
Mining, however, is not the main problem. Metals and minerals must be refined and processed to be used in clean energy technologies, and China alone refines 40% of the world’s nickel supply, 50-70% of its lithium, 65% of its cobalt, and nearly 90% of its rare earths, according to the IEA.
Downstream, China dominates manufacturing energy technology capacity and capability, with a 60% share in wind foundations and a 97% share in solar PV wafers, according to Wood Mackenzie. When it comes to lithium battery manufacturing: “Less than 1% of global cathode production capacity is currently in North America. The four planned cathode plants will consume more lithium than all the proposed lithium refineries in the USA,” added Melsert of ABTC.
For copper, the 2024 Mineral Commodity Summary shows Chinese copper mines produced 1.7 million t in 2023, an amount not significantly greater than the US’s 1.1 million tons. However, China produced 12 million t of refined copper, while the US produced a balmy 0.89 million t. US$85 billion in new smelting and refining capability is needed to displace Chinese supply, according to Wood Mackenzie.
“China controls over 60% of global production of critical metals like copper, steel, aluminum and rare earths. China's dominance in metal smelting and refining is due not only to its investment in mines worldwide but also to its ability to overcome environmental and economic hurdles,” highlighted Daniel Kappes, president and CEO of Kappes, Cassiday & Associates.
The capital expenditure required for the energy transition across power and renewables for Wood Mackenzie’s net zero case is US$78 trillion between 2024 and 2050. Ridding the market of Chinese manufactured clean tech products would add an extra US$6 trillion.
The time is now
Critical mineral supply is concentrated in a smaller number of countries than for oil and natural gas. Supply chains for solar panels, wind turbines and batteries using imported materials could quickly be affected by regulatory changes, trade restrictions, or political instability. Decarbonizing the electricity and transport sectors will increase metal extraction over sevenfold by 2050 compared to 2015. Around 32-40% of this growth is expected in countries with weak resource governance. The impending mining boom may result in severe environmental degradation and unequal economic benefits. With the highest environmental regulations globally, the US has a distinct role to play in the world’s decarbonization.
The US cannot do it alone. The path forward must be collaborative, and we cannot wait. Damages from 2023’s 376 climate disasters totaled US$92.9 billion, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. From 2014 to 2023 that amount increases to US$1.2 trillion. This will only rise. While net zero may seem expensive, the price of not decarbonizing will be even greater.
Article header image courtesy of Rio Tinto Kennecott