Preparing Mining for the New Climate Frontier
How engineering and consulting firms provide support under new pressures
Storm events are now less predictable and more volatile. Droughts are intensified. Fires run rampant through the beetle killed pines across the Western US. Mining is no stranger to harsh climates; however, climate hazards will only become more frequent and intense, imposing greater challenges to mining operations. Moreover, the US was one of the 195 countries that pledged to limit global warming below 2.0 degree Celsius under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Miner Rio Tinto reported that record snowfall, twice the historical Utah average, contributed to a 36% reduction in mined copper production in Q1 2023 compared to Q1 2022. 7.5 million acres of the US, primarily in the West, burned in wildfires in 2022, leading to temporary shutdowns of mines. Mining operations face a critical dilemma: increasing production to help the world mitigate climate impacts, while a changing climate lowers production volume. Engineering and consulting firms are working with miners to overcome these challenges.
Battling scarcity
The arid plains of the Western US were once a boon for miners, as sparse vegetation and fewer trees facilitated exploration for mineral resources of the exposed rock. This dryness, however, is no longer a boon, and for some mining operations it could even be a bust. 30%- 50% of production for copper, gold, iron ore and zinc are in areas of high-water stress, and those figures are predicted to rise, according to a recent study by McKinsey & Company. Within the Western US, the states of Arizona, Nevada and Utah are those most at risk. However, Colorado, Idaho and Wyoming are not exempt, as precipitation levels fluctuate drastically due to changing climate conditions.
Through utilization of innovative technologies, machine learning algorithms, storm prediction modelling, and other measures, engineering and consulting firms are trying to turn the future around for mining operations supplying domestic material for the USA’s green energy transition. “Access to water is dwindling due to climate change’s effects. The good news is that mining companies have long understood this issue and ensure they conserve these precious resources through immense pre planning for water use, closed-loop systems, dry stack tailings technologies, and other best management practices and conservation methods,” said Steve Trussell, executive director at the Arizona Mining Association.
Dennis Papilion, executive president, global consulting at Ausenco, added: “At most sites, there are limitations on the amount of fresh water we can withdraw for operational use. Ausenco is deeply committed to mini- mizing freshwater demand and maximizing water reuse. We recently explored wastewater reuse on several projects; its adoption is increasing across the industry.”
Adapting to extremes
Intensified storms and unpredictable weather patterns demand a fundamental shift in the approach to water management said Alan Driscoll, VP, and director of mining services at Forsgren Associates: “We are witnessing an increase in storm intensity and frequency, which has a direct impact on mining operations. Mines operate continuously and must adapt to varying conditions, including extreme weather. Operators are collaborating with regulators to enhance designs and plan for larger storm events, incorporating larger containment areas for processed water and improving stormwater management systems.”
Droughts and excess precipitation from intensified storms have the potential for catastrophic effects. Randy Huffsmith, senior vice president and US mining sector leader at WSP elaborated: “Droughts affect water availability for mineral processing, while heavy rains and flooding can damage water and waste containment systems and delay operations.”
The variability of these extreme events requires mining operations to develop flexible, proactive water management strategies. A shift toward predictive water management has emerged as a key adaptation strategy. “We encourage clients to adopt a predictive site-wide water balance rather than a traditional water inventory tool,” noted Jeffrey Coffin, chief operating officer at Knight Piésold USA. “This approach allows for risk-informed decision-making regarding water needs, storage/freeboard requirements, and water inventory management. We aim to maintain operational water levels while avoiding excess inventory as the climate continues to change.”
Machine learning is playing a pivotal role in these adaptive efforts, enhancing data-driven decisions across various water management aspects. Tom Meuzelaar, founder and owner of Life Cycle Geo elaborated: “Machine learning can aid significantly in the identification of various water types which supports management strategies such as monitoring potential impacts across project boundaries. It is an indispensable tool in supporting ongoing measurement of water quality throughout the life cycle, including water quality measured at tailings storage facilities and waste rock dumps.”
Some firms are proactively integrating climate adaptation strategies in the planning stages, well before mining operations are underway, said Kevin Martindale, director of business development at Millcreek Engineering: “We account for potential storm impacts in feasibility studies, considering 10, 50, and 100-year storm fronts. This includes evaluating the need for infrastructure adjustments, such as covered equipment, to mitigate operational downtime due to extreme weather. The costs associated with these adaptations are crucial for project economics, efficiency, and safety.”
Swept away: Reassessing historical climate norms
Global climate fluctuations are not new, as Earth’s climate has always been dynamic; however, these fluctuations are intensifying with increased emissions, which trap heat and amplify natural phenomena like storms and droughts. Recent shifts are challenging established models, recounted Jeff Parshley, corporate consultant of environment and mine closure at SRK: “Traditionally, we analyze climatic records over a seven-year period to identify the wettest years for our designs. Last winter’s extreme conditions did not align with this data, resulting in unexpected challenges.”
Accurate predictions hinge on robust data, yet data acquisition itself presents obstacles: “A primary concern is gathering reliable data to predict changes in precipitation and extreme weather,” said Rick Frechette, principal consultant, civil and geotechnical engineering at Haley & Aldrich.
Recognizing that climate extremes have historical precedents, SRK is expanding its data analysis to incorporate longer historical records. “We are expanding data analysis to include longer historical records, recognizing that periods of significant wetness occurred 100 years ago,” said Parshley.
Probabilistic risk analysis is another critical tool for managing unpredictability, added Frechette: “Our hydrology team employs methods like probable maximum precipitation and probable maximum floods to manage water-related risks. We use available data to develop adaptable strategies for immediate and long-term climate impacts.”
Paul Stockburger, VP sector leader, strategic pursuits, mining, minerals & metals at Stantec, agreed: “While we cannot predict every scenario, we apply probabilistic risk analysis to evaluate the likelihood of specific events. We aim to design for a high confidence level while focusing on realistic scenarios to protect operations effectively.”
The rapid pace of climate change is prompting firms to look beyond the historical record, making a clear case for adaptive strategies over rigid reliance on past data. “Over the past decade, there have been significant shifts in mining project design due to climate change. We can no longer rely solely on historical data for storm predictions. For instance, while working on drainage in Mexico, we faced a storm much more severe than expected,” warned Patterson.
Given this uncertainty, models are increasingly being supplemented with contingency plans, especially for high-risk projects. While data and models are invaluable, they must be paired with flexible, practical measures to ensure operations remain resilient against the unknown, said Rob Simm, senior vice president and emergent sector leader for water at Stantec: “Our models are not foolproof. In a project in Alaska, we are developing contingency plans in case our predictions are inaccurate.”
Why adapt?
The mining industry is already navigating tight capital constraints, with the combined capital expenditure of the top 19 mining companies projected to reach US$71.0 billion in 2024, an increase of 10.6% compared to 2023. Climate adaptation can be difficult to justify financially, as much of it involves speculative investment. “It is all about managing risk,” emphasized Randy Huffsmith, senior vice president and US mining sector leader at WSP.
Huffsmith explained the stakes: “If companies do not adapt, the consequences can be severe. In the case of drought and severe flooding the risk is not operating. Mining companies must assess these risks against the costs of implementing adaptive technologies. The key is finding where investments offer the greatest value while protecting shareholders.”
Balance is key, added Driscoll: “It is crucial to strike a balance between implementing sufficient protective measures and managing costs. In a rapidly changing climate, determining the right level of investment in preventative measures can be tricky, but it is necessary to anticipate potential risks. As conditions evolve, so will the strategies required to manage them effectively.”
Mining is, after all, a long-term industry. Although initial costs may be daunting, the return on preventive investments can be substantial. “Investing in preventative measures upfront is essential as it can save costs in the long run,” noted Martindale.
Damage to waste containment systems can impact an operation’s surroundings long after mining stops, which make climate change considerations even more necessary said David Swisher, VP mining, minerals and metals, US Operations at Worley: “Considering climate change in engineering and design is crucial for minimizing long-term environmental impacts. Operations typically have limited lifespans, and it is essential to plan for land reclamation, water protection, and community benefits post-operation.”
Climate change is a global challenge, impacting mining operations on every continent. Open communication and collaboration across regions will be key to developing resilient strategies. Dennis Papilion, executive president, global consulting at Ausenco, emphasized this collaborative approach: “We integrate lessons learned from different regions, not only focusing on climate change, but to understand big-picture impacts and create effective adaptation strategies.”
Expertise developed by some companies in challenging conditions can be applied in the development of new adaptive techniques. For example, M3 Engineering, frequently faces challenges related to harsh environments in remote projects. Weather conditions, such as heavy snow, are the norm at these sites. “M3’s clients relied upon our experienced staff to deliver a process and plant design that could be constructed in a remote area with the Western US and during harsh cold-weather climate conditions. M3’s expertise in challenging project conditions proves vital in delivering complex projects in remote locations”, said Matthew Sletten the general manager.
Sharing this expertise to meet climate challenges in regions with the potential for abnormally intense snowfall, like those experienced at Rio Tinto’s Kennecott, could help the industry adapt to a changing climate.
The challenges posed by climate change to the mining industry are formidable, but not insurmountable. As extreme weather events become more frequent and water resources dwindle, the need for innovative solutions is more critical than ever. The future of mining in the Western US hinges on the industry's ability to innovate and adapt, ensuring resilience in the face of an uncertain climate.
“Climate change adaptation is all about managing risk and, if companies do not adapt, the consequences can be severe. In the case of drought and flooding the risk is not operating. Mining companies must assess these risks against the costs of implementing adaptive technologies.”
Randy Huffsmith, Senior Vice President - US Mining Sector Leader, WSP
Article header image courtesy of Rio Tinto Kennecott